A green light for Trump to deport migrants is expected to lead to a surge here. But there are big obstacles to staying.

By Nicholas Keung The Star July 2, 2026

The United States Supreme Court has given the Trump administration the green light to deport more than a million migrants and keep asylum seekers out. Should Canada be concerned? 

Last week, the court ruled that President Donald Trump can end a humanitarian program that offers temporary refuge to hundreds of thousands of Haitians and Syrians, opening the door to revoking the status of nationals from more countries. The court also sanctioned the U.S. border practice of “metering” to turn back asylum seekers at its official ports of entry.

While experts were not surprised by the decisions of a court dominated by conservative appointees, a new wave of migrants arriving at the Canadian land border — whether at ports of entry or via irregular routes — is widely anticipated, despite Ottawa’s recent changes to restrict asylum eligibility and end irregular migration in between official ports of entry.

The boost for Trump’s hardline immigration agenda has again renewed the debate over whether the U.S. is a safe country for refugees. And therefore, whether Ottawa should get out of the bilateral agreement that allows Canada to turn back potential refugees who arrive at its shared border, on the premise that they should pursue their claims first in the States.

“Some people may indeed try to come to Canada,” said Queen’s University administrative and immigration law professor Sharry Aiken.

“There have been other programs that have ended and cancelled in the United States, and we did see movements across the border. Now it is much different, but that’s not to say it won’t happen. So there may be a surge in crossings.”

CBSA says asylum applications are down

The Canada Border Services Agency said it won’t speculate on how foreign government policies are going to influence the flow of migration. However, it said it is closely monitoring the border and ready to handle an influx that could quickly reverse the downward trend for claims Ottawa has boasted about in the past year.

As of June 21, CBSA said its officers have processed 6,982 asylum applications, compared to 16,256 at the same time in 2025, representing a 57 per cent reduction. To date this year, 710 asylum claimants — 309 of them having entered irregularly between ports of entry — crossed into Canada, were found ineligible for asylum and sent back to the U.S. 

In March, Ottawa passed Bill C-12, among other changes, to ban irregular migrants entering from the U.S. between land ports of entry from the right to asylum. Instead, those who manage to enter undetected will only get paper reviews by Immigration with regards to the likelihood their lives would be at risk if returned to their country.

“Crossing the border between ports of entry is illegal and dangerous and does not provide any benefit to a person’s asylum claim,” the border agency told the Star. “Failure to report to the CBSA upon arrival in Canada is a serious offence and may result in penalties or charges.”

In the event an influx creates a need for additional on-site space, the agency said it will activate plans to lease additional space as a processing centre for refugee claimants.

‘Pipeline to deportation’

Ottawa-based immigration lawyer Heather Neufeld said uprooting one’s life in the U.S. for an uncertain future in Canada is a difficult decision because migrants losing their temporary protected status under the American court decision have established roots in the U.S., many even with children who are U.S. citizens.

While some have close family ties in Canada and are allowed to come for asylum, they may not be familiar with the required documents for the exemption under the Canada-U.S. Safe Third Country Agreement, which dictates that migrants make their refugee claims in the country where they first arrived.

Neufeld said she has seen people eligible for the exemption who still end up wrongly denied at the Canadian border, handed over to the U.S. and detained for removal. 

“In most cases, a turnback by Canada is simply an immediate pipeline to deportation,” she noted. “People have to evaluate their options very carefully and not assume that Canada is going to be a feasible option.”

Although Canada has suspended or deferred removals of people from 22 countries due to instability in those regions, migrants from these places don’t get a risk assessment until they are ready to be deported. That means they will be stuck in prolonged limbo, Neufeld noted. Haiti, Syria and Ukraine are all on Canada’s no-removal list.  

She said there needs to be information put out in different migrant communities to help them understand the state of Canadian law amid all the misinformation spun by bad actors.

Vancouver-based immigration lawyer Erica Olmstead said Canadian border officers have the discretion to let people in by issuing them temporary resident permits in spite of the Canada-U.S. bilateral asylum ban, if they believe protection is not being afforded. However, that discretion does not seem to be happening, she added.

Anyone losing their temporary protected status in the U.S. should first look at the options there and then weigh it against what’s available in Canada before dashing to the border, warned Olmstead.

“To me, the solution is going to be in litigation, because Canada does have a charter that is supposed to provide protection,” said Olmstead.

Aisling Bondy, president of the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers, believes the U.S. court decisions will further strengthen the pending legal challenges against the Safe Third Country Agreement before Canadian courts.

“The U.S. Supreme Court decision shows just how bad the situation for refugees and migrants is getting in the United States, and just how much Canada is breaching our human rights obligations by not allowing people to make refugee claims at the Canadian border,” she said.

Aiken of Queen’s said this is the moment for Canada to suspend the bilateral agreement. If not, she added, Ottawa should at least amend the proposed regulations of Bill C-12 to build in more exceptions so that people could retain access to asylum based on appropriate circumstances.

Source: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/the-trump-administration-is-deporting-a-million-migrants-heres-what-it-means-for-canada/article_fb722a97-3b5e-4f20-a8cc-27ad99b772d3.html